How very interesting that Richard Cannings, the NDP candidate in the new South Okanagan-West Kootenay federal riding, has a 24-point lead over the Conservatives.
An Insights West poll in early July surveyed 302 people by phone on how they would vote in this fall’s federal election, and voila.
The new riding blends much of the former Okanagan-Coquihalla electoral district with the former riding of B.C. Southern Interior. Thus, the new boundaries (in rough terms) comprises, Penticton, Oliver, Osoyoos, the Kootenay Boundary and Central Kootenay — from Trail and Castlegar up the Slocan Valley to Nakusp. If one applies the results of the 2011 federal election to the new (SOWK) riding, the redistributed results give the Conservatives (CPC) just shy of 45 per cent of the vote.
Compare this to the Insights West poll, which grants the NDP 44 per cent, and the CPC just 20 per cent.
What a fall from grace for the CPC if these numbers portend the election outcome. As well they might. The same polling group (Insights West) revealed, in May, a “dramatic shift” in key battleground ridings ahead of this fall federal election in four other electoral district in B.C. Two in the Lower Mainland and a pair on Vancouver Island.
The shifts heavily favour the NDP. The poor showing from the governing party’s candidates “may be partly to blame on concerns about environmental issues and Bill C-51,” says Insights West vice president Mario Canseco.
One take-away for me, as I look at these results (which may well change somewhat), is that I will vote with the assurance that my vote can be part of the change which we so desperately need in Canada.
Frederick Van Seters